Week 47: #FreeThrowsMatter — But History Shows Otherwise For Syracuse Basketball
By: The Boston Orange — @TBO44
Last night I was in a strange mix of pain and optimism like many other ‘Cuse fans. On one hand, it finally feels like we have a team that belongs in these big games again. On the other hand… how do you miss 17 free throws in a single game?! This was a game Syracuse should have won, and as Autry said, “There are no moral victories.” Correct answer — but seriously, how is the free throw shooting not getting any better?
After the Monmouth game, where Syracuse shot a brutal 19/33 (58%) and we all watched JJ Starling fight through the yips, I thought it couldn’t get worse. I was wrong. Last night against Houston was worse. (Side note: Not one media reporter asked about free throw shooting in the postgame. Blasphemous.) Through five games, Syracuse is shooting 56.1% from the line — ranking 364th out of 365 teams. Remove Donnie Freeman (who is missing the Vegas tournament) and it drops to 46.2%. Yes, forty-six percent.
But this morning, I woke up with a different perspective. Syracuse basketball — historically — has always been bad at free throw shooting. It almost seemed to be a part of the identity. Long, athletic, physical guys… who couldn’t make free throws. So I dug through the data since 2000 to see if memory matched reality.
The Mason-Dixon Line of Syracuse Free Throw History
There’s actually a strong inverse correlation between free throw percentage and team success. The historical FT% average is 69.5%, and it splits Syracuse history in two:
- Above 69.5% = pain
- Below 69.5% = prosperity
Here’s the full breakdown year-by-year:
| Year | FT% | Wins |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | 78.4% | 18 |
| 2022-23 | 74.9% | 17 |
| 2017-18 | 74.1% | 23 |
| 2019-20 | 74.0% | 18 |
| 2021-22 | 73.7% | 16 |
| 2016-17 | 73.4% | 19 |
| 2023-24 | 72.1% | 20 |
| 2000-01 | 71.5% | 25 |
| 1999-00 | 70.5% | 26 |
| 2024-25 | 70.5% | 14 |
| 2013-14 | 70.3% | 28 |
| 2002-03 | 69.4% | 30 |
| 2006-07 | 69.3% | 24 |
| 2011-12 | 69.1% | 34 |
| 2015-16 | 68.3% | 23 |
| 2018-19 | 68.1% | 20 |
| 2012-13 | 67.5% | 30 |
| 2009-10 | 67.1% | 30 |
| 2007-08 | 66.8% | 21 |
| 2004-05 | 66.4% | 27 |
| 2014-15 | 66.0% | 18 |
| 2010-11 | 65.9% | 27 |
| 2001-02 | 65.0% | 23 |
| 2005-06 | 64.3% | 23 |
| 2008-09 | 63.9% | 28 |
| 2003-04 | 63.6% | 23 |
| 2025-26 | 56.1% | 4 |
It gets really interesting when you look at the table below which summarizes this contrast. Overwhelmingly, teams below the 69.5% line had more success. This may seem surprising until you realize 2018-19 was the last time Syracuse had a season shooting below 69.5%, which happens to be Buddy Boeheim’s freshman season. Since then our rosters have lacked athleticism, lacked size, lacked defensive ability but attempted to make up for that with shooting. This has never been the recipe for success at ‘Cuse.
| Above 69.5% | Below 69.5% | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg Wins | 20.4 | 25.4 |
| 20+ Win Seasons | 5 | 14 |
| NCAA Tournaments | 5 | 11 |
| Final Fours | 0 | 3 |
| National Titles | 0 | 1 |
A Good Omen?
Syracuse absolutely needs to get back in the gym and grind out free throws. They lost to Houston because of it, and they will continue to lose games to good teams if they don’t improve. But historically, Syracuse’s best teams were built on athleticism, defense, physicality… and yes, poor foul shooting.
This may sound crazy, but maybe our inability to make free throws is good omen. Maybe this is a sign from the basketball God’s that we are back. Maybe this is a subtle sign to ‘Cuse fans that it is time to get excited again. Syracuse basketball can’t shoot free throws again — and strangely enough, it might be the best thing that’s happened in years.
Go Orange – Beat Kansas
The Boston Orange 
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